Trump's Nosediving In The Polls
Published on May 11, 2025
How Can We Take Advantage of his Misfortune?
TRUMP'S NOSEDIVING IN THE POLLS. HOW CAN WE TAKE ADVANTAGE OF HIS
MISFORTUNE?
First, some background. There are two categories of voters who are changing from
"approve" to "disapprove" in big numbers: voters who've been directly affected
negatively by Trump's policies, and voters in the "disengaged"/low-information category.
Rural voters/agriculture-related are the primary example of the first category; Trump's
tariffs will hit them hard, and they know it. But what about the "low engagement" voters,
who are "abandoning Trump in droves"? According to G. Elliot Morris, there's been "a
massive 33 percentage point decline in Trump's net approval rating over the last 3
months with people who consume the least news." And these are the people
responsible for Trump's win. (1)
Who are these "low-engagements" voters? According to Morris, they are the
"Americans who are least likely to be informed about the news and usually don't show
[up at the polls, who voted for Trump]. These are the people that are hardest to reach
with political messaging. They do not read the New York Times, they do not digest a lot
of political advertising on cable and network television."
It takes a lot to "break through" to these disengaged Americans. And that's just what
Trump has done in his first 100+ days: shock and awe. Trump's modus operandi is
backfiring as word and effects of mass layoffs & resulting loss of services, tariffs causing
price rises, and benefit cuts ripples outward. Morris's summary: "it turns out the people
who don't read the Times, don't watch the Sunday shows, and don't care about the
policy details... still care when the economy sours and their lives get harder."
LCI's postcarding efforts have a role to play in this turnaround. Our postcards can get
through to people who don't read the Times or listen to network news programs. We've
just sent 1600 postcards to constituents of a vulnerable California Congressman
warning them that he had voted to slash Medicaid, on which a large proportion of voters
rely, and urged them to protest by calling his office. In this Newsletter we're announcing
a similar effort to voters in the swing state of Ohio.
